Update on January 4-5th California Storm...

I just finished taking a look at the latest model data. I am going to break it down using two of my favorite models--the GFS and the NAM.

Here is what the GFS predicts:

• Between now and Sunday night, the model is projecting about 3.5 inches of rain to fall in Los Angeles coastal plain.
• Rain begins today, and picks up in intensity through the evening. In a 12 hour time frame, from 4 pm to 4 am, we can expect to see upwards of 2 inches of rain!
• Most intense winds occur late tonight, with winds sustained between 25 and 30 mph. We can expect gusts up to 45 mph.
• Next heavy dose of rain for the area focuses between 10am and 4 pm on Sunday, with about 0.75 inches of rain falling during the time period. This episode of precipitation brings the chance for gusty winds--comparable to what we can expect tonight and perhaps a bit stronger.
  
• On and off rain between the two heavier periods, but most of the 3.5 inches should fall between 4 pm and 4 am tonight and then again on Sunday.

Here is the NAM prediction.

• Very similar to the GFS, but not as wet for Los Angeles proper. Although it is slightly drier, the model is still projecting about 1.25 inches of rain during the 4 pm tonight to 4 am tomorrow morning time frame.
  
• Comparable with wind to GFS for tonight's event.
• Also drier and later with Sunday's system. NAM predicts next bout of precip to fall from 4 pm to 10 pm on Sunday evening. According to NAM, we can expect 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain from this system.
• Furthermore, the NAM is not as windy as the GFS in regards to Sunday's system.

What is my thinking? I think we are going to get a lot of rain tonight, which can be made worse by gusty winds. I am expecting more rain to fall during Sunday afternoon/evening time frame, but I will need to monitor the winds with that event. My suggestion? Go out now, rent some movies, puts on your pajamas, and enjoy the night in your house.